Dear Friends + Interlocutors,

A few random thoughts and my opinion about the outcome of the Russo-Ukraine war.

From the start it was apparent that this was not a full-scale invasion. Russia’s move toward Kiev was a feint, followed by a pivot to the eastern part of Ukraine, which is the actual goal. 

Putin does not want to conqueror all of Ukraine and subsume it to Russia. He wants the predominantly eastern part, the two self-proclaimed, pro-Russian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. These will provide a land bridge to Russian Crimea and the Russian Fleet on the Black Sea.

Under the Minsk 2 agreement, which Ukraine signed, under the sponsorship of Germany and France, Donetsk and Luhansk were granted considerable autonomy within Ukraine. But under pressure from Washington, Kiev later walked away from that arrangement. Pure mischief-making from afar. Madness.

One thing led to another, and Putin finally invaded Ukraine. Now these two Russian-speaking republics will be independent, allied to Russia, and will be protected by Russia. They might even at the end of the day be annexed by Russia, which is what their leaders have requested in the past.

The the Russian-speaking regions of Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Lugansk and Donetsk have been harassed and attacked by Kiev ever since Washington masterminded the 2014 coup that overthrew the elected government in Kiev, replacing it with an anti-Russian regime. More mischief-making from afar. Madness.

The Jewish ex-comedian, Zelensky, is Kiev's latest leader. He is a grandstanding pawn of Washington, whose foreign policy establishment facilitated and precipitated the present war. Zelensky is also a captured entity of ultra-nationalist Ukrainians, some of whom are neo-Nazi and crazy.

I do not see what Putin does next after achieving the goal of securing eastern Ukraine, which is almost finished. This would leave a rump Ukrainian state to the west, contiguous to NATO, which is now utterly subservient to Washington's Neocon and Neoliberal cracked-brain policies.

What happens then? Endless war in which the NATO-supplied rump state attacks east Ukraine and the Russian army ensconced there? The purpose of which is to claw back the pro-Russian east against the will of the inhabitants? With more Washington/NATO gaslighting of brainwashed Americans and hapless Europeans? Cui bono? 

The problem is, Zelensky cannot negotiate a peace agreement that would recognize and accept the Russian success in the east. He would instantly be dropped by Washington and perhaps shot by the Ukrainian neo-Nazis as a traitor. 

He might ultimately end up in Israel, ironically among sanctioned Russian oligarchs, most of whom are Jewish. All this death, destruction and brouhaha thanks to Washington meddling.

Below is a link to the big picture of Ukraine on the Grand Chessboard as envisioned by Zbigniew Brzezinski. 

Patrick

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